Deliberately Unpredictable: Why You Should Pursue the Most Unlikely Solution.
Why being ‘Most Unlikely’ is your only competitive advantage
Welcome to the Creativity Business, a newsletter about earning attention and differentiating yourself as a marketer or content creator. If you’re not a subscriber, sign up and get content & differentiation strategy delivered to your inbox, for free.
Hello Brave Marketers and Creatives!
It’s an extraordinarily challenging time to be a marketer or creator, isn’t it?
I see tension everywhere in the marketing world right now:
We want to preserve our human-powered creativity, but feel immense pressure to use AI.
We want to escape the Attention Economy as consumers, but as marketers, getting attention is our job.
We want to create marketing and content that stands out, but we don’t want to buy into the quick-fix, copycat strategies that proliferate on LinkedIn.
I would like to address these tensions. Because in keeping with the core theme of Earn It, the solution isn’t to do more. It’s to do something completely different.
The Overwhelm of A.I. Slop and the Attention Economy
I’m not sure about you, but I’m exhausted.
By the volume of AI-generated content everywhere.
By the algorithms that hook you with dopamine into doomscrolling.
By the breathless headlines and polarizing clickbait on formerly respectable news sites.
By the not-so-humble bragging thought leaders filling LinkedIn and Substack with ‘hot, spicy takes’ to maintain their profile and visibility.
Is this how we want to spend our lives? Every day, filling our hours and brains with instantly forgettable and unhealthy crap? Even more important, is this what we want to spend our lives contributing to?
I certainly don’t, and I’m guessing you’d rather not either.
The Pressure to Copy ‘What’s Working’
The unfortunate truth is that if your job is in marketing or creating content, this chaotic online environment is where you have to compete for the most valuable resource in the world: the attention of the people you want to reach.
It’s getting harder because consumers are getting pickier and pickier about what they give their attention to.
And so, our own algorithms end up feeding us an endless barrage of “Here’s What Works” content from other thought-leaders, course-makers, and companies:
“Here’s the secret to Mr. Beast’s YouTube success!”
“Here’s how to make a trailer like Diary of a CEO!”
“Here’s how to build a successful paid Substack like Lenny!”
We click on them because we are desperate for a silver bullet.
It’s all snake oil.
It’s all either shortcuts that don’t deliver results, or it’s impossibly-resourced, obsessively orchestrated machines that aren’t replicable by an average team or individual.
This is all fairly depressing, right?
But I remain optimistic! To me, the current landscape presents an exciting opportunity for Brave Marketers and Creators.
Be ‘The Most Unlikely’: How to Compete Against a Prediction Engine
Here is my North Star for 2026:
AI is a prediction engine. Its job is to predict the next most likely answer, solution, or reply. It’s really, really good at providing what is most likely.
We need to pay attention to these words! Predictions are predictable. Most likely is… very likely.
If our work is predictable, we’ve already lost.
So instead, I am focusing on being the most unlikely answer, solution, or reply.
I want to be unpredictable. By design.
Why?
Average is now a commodity. The only value left is being the most unlikely.
The most unlikely stands out.
The most unlikely is remembered.
The most unlikely is talked about with others.
When I think about most likely, I think average, familiar, and generic. Do you want to be associated with those adjectives?
When I think about most unlikely, I think counter-intuitive, curatorial taste, boundary-pushing, surprising, and refreshing. Yes, please!
If all this sounds a lot like being creative… it is! 😊
How to Not Copy Thought Leaders and Outlier Successes
If someone else has already found success with a strategy, and you decide to copy it, what are the odds that you’re ever going to be anything but a weak copy of the original? As with AI-generated solutions, copying results in average outcomes at best. By definition, copying is predictable.
So again, I am focusing on doing the opposite. I want to design a strategy for success that is unique to me: my audience, my strengths, my voice and values, and my desired outcomes.
I want to be the marketer and content creator that people want to spend more time with, not less.
I want to be one of a kind in everything that I do. If you care about standing out, I think you should want this, too.
What ‘Most Unlikely’ Looks Like in Practice
As you may or may not know, I am an obsessive fan of formats. I’ve written about it here, I have regularly shared clever and original formats in this newsletter, there is an entire section on formats in Earn It, including this enormous two-page spread of format ideas.
Why? Formats are your special sauce. They distinguish your content from everyone else’s. The packaging becomes an essential part of the audience experience. And much of the time, formats are what other people try to copy from successful shows.
Your job as a marketer or creator today should be to create your own Flagship Format—a show or series so distinctive that only you could have created it.
A Flagship Format is rooted in originality: a unique, unpredictable, and most unlikely audience experience.
Your Flagship Format defines you strategically and defines your brand in your customers’ minds.
A Flagship Format is designed around every element that makes you special and interesting. It is as unique as your company, services, and products.
Your Flagship Format becomes brand IP that effectively positions you, builds a creative moat for your company, and earns valuable attention.
Your Flagship Format can take almost any form: a TikTok series, a YouTube show, a podcast, a Substack, an Instagram carousel, or anything else that you make in a truly differentiated way.
You Are Your Format
What do great Flagship Formats look like? Here are some of the one-of-a-kind calling cards that come to my mind…
I think about podcasts from The Daily to Shell Game.
I think about TV shows from Curb Your Enthusiasm to Survivor.
From brands, I think about social accounts like Surreal Cereal, social video like Bilt’s Roomies, extreme sports from Red Bull, and product packaging from Oatly.
In every case, there is nothing else like it, anywhere. It’s instantly recognizable, it’s on brand, it’s strategic, and it’s compelling.
These are all Flagship Formats, and we remember and talk about them because of the perfect marriage of structure and content.
Today, your format is the message.
You are your format.
What does yours say?
A Renewed Call for Creative Bravery
I know you are already a Brave Marketer, so I hope this is an inspiring shot in the arm to be Creatively Brave and make The Flagship Format that only you can make.
Do the Opposite of what everyone else is doing.
Be yourself.
Embrace what makes you weird and different.
Surprise your audience with unexpected value, quality, and creativity.
Be the refreshing break from mediocrity that you would happily welcome into your life right now.
Develop your Flagship Format!
If being “deliberately unpredictable” resonates, I’d love to hear from you. Here is how I’m helping a select number of Brave Marketers stop feeding the feed and instead build their Flagship Formats. (I’ve also got top-tier production partners if required.)
What’s Earned My Attention Recently
To help you embrace the “unlikely,” here are two books that have influenced my thinking lately:
First, my friend Gill Deacon has written a perfect book for these times: ‘A Love Affair with the Unknown.’ It’s all about managing (and embracing) the uncertainty that is everywhere in modern life. There is a lot about creativity in this book, including the bang-on insight that new ideas necessarily come from embracing uncertainty. Seeking certainty and trying to control the world around you is an impossible task, and Gill’s book made me excited to be in a state of ‘not knowing’ the answer.
Second, George Newman has just released ‘How Great Ideas Happen,’ which details a methodology for generating new, breakthrough ideas. Newman is a cognitive scientist and has broken down ideation and creativity into a repeatable set of steps, rooted in the metaphor of archaeology: surveying the terrain, gridding promising territory, digging for promising ideas, and sifting through your results to find the most valuable findings. I love a book with actual exercises you can put into practice, and this book is full of them!
That’s it for this edition—thanks for reading!
Steve
Another thoughtful and challenging post from my son Steve.
my fellow champion of pushing into the creative and courageous unknown, i love this. in business, in marketing, in life! and thank you for the book plug:) so glad you enjoyed it.